Our side
MoneylineALST to win
ours 74%
Projected score
22–33
FAMU – ALST
2026-10-10 · 4:00 PM
ASU Football Stadium · Montgomery, AL
Conference game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Florida A&M lead
5–2
· 7 meetings since 2003
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge Florida A&M Rattlers
73 ranks
Florida A&M Rattlers #173 rush offense
Alabama State Hornets #246 run defense
Pass game
edge Alabama State Hornets
96 ranks
Florida A&M Rattlers #142 pass offense
Alabama State Hornets #46 pass defense
Run game
edge Alabama State Hornets
223 ranks
Alabama State Hornets #5 rush offense
Florida A&M Rattlers #228 run defense
Pass game
edge Alabama State Hornets
241 ranks
Alabama State Hornets #1 pass offense
Florida A&M Rattlers #242 pass defense
Florida A&M Rattlers
Balanced · 56% run
Ball-control
Alabama State Hornets
Run-heavy · 59% run
Ball-control
Dual-threat QB · 65 rush ypg
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Florida A&M Rattlers
DB
Justin Bostic
10 tkl · 2 INT
#44 DB
LB
Denzel Johnson
14 tkl
#218 LB
P
Bobby Engstler
25 punts · 40.0 yd avg
#39 P
DB
Caleb McKenzie
4 tkl
#687 DB
Alabama State Hornets
RB
Jamarie Hostzclaw
169 rush yds · 3 TD · 4 rec
#111 RB
DB
Ta'Shaun Sims
15 tkl · 1 PD
#301 DB
DB
Zion Crawford
8 tkl · 3 PD
#406 DB
DL
Jaylan Jarrett
6 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL
#542 DL
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Florida A&M offense vs Alabama State defense-4.2 pts
Alabama State offense vs Florida A&M defense+1.4 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness+1.8 pts
Power projection before adjustment+8.7
Rest · context onlyAway team on 7 more days rest
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.