← Matchups

Jackson State

· 2-0 · power -6.7 · #259
Our numberALST -2.0 no book has priced this game

Alabama State

· 2-1 (1-0) · power -7.5 · #270
Our side
MoneylineALST to win ours 55%
Projected score 28–30 JKST – ALST
2026-11-14 · 3:00 PM ASU Football Stadium · Montgomery, AL Conference game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series Jackson State lead 11–9 · 20 meetings since 1977
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge Jackson State Tigers 236 ranks
Jackson State Tigers #10 rush offense Alabama State Hornets #246 run defense
Pass game even 29 ranks apart
Jackson State Tigers #75 pass offense Alabama State Hornets #46 pass defense
Run game even 26 ranks apart
Alabama State Hornets #5 rush offense Jackson State Tigers #31 run defense
Pass game even 40 ranks apart
Alabama State Hornets #1 pass offense Jackson State Tigers #41 pass defense
Jackson State Tigers Run-heavy · 65% run Avg pace Alabama State Hornets Run-heavy · 59% run Ball-control Dual-threat QB · 65 rush ypg

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Jackson State Tigers
K Andrew Ivaniciuc 5 FG · 8 XP · 23 pts #32 K
RB Nate Blount IV 168 rush yds · 2 TD · 2 rec #125 RB
WR Jabari Jones 7 rec · 173 yds · 1 TD #198 WR
WR Nate Rembert 7 rec · 188 yds #325 WR
Alabama State Hornets
RB Jamarie Hostzclaw 169 rush yds · 3 TD · 4 rec #111 RB
DB Ta'Shaun Sims 15 tkl · 1 PD #301 DB
DB Zion Crawford 8 tkl · 3 PD #406 DB
DL Jaylan Jarrett 6 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL #542 DL

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Jackson State Tigers -6.7 +0.0 -6.8 #259
Alabama State Hornets -7.5 -4.8 -2.7 #270

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Jackson State offense vs Alabama State defense+2.8 pts
Alabama State offense vs Jackson State defense+2.0 pts

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.