Our side
MoneylineUTC to win
ours 42%
Projected score
30–26
UTC – CIT
2026-09-26 · 2:00 PM
Johnson Hagood Stadium · Charleston, SC
Conference game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Chattanooga lead
22–14–1
· 37 meetings since 1926
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
even
24 ranks apart
Chattanooga Mocs #127 rush offense
The Citadel Bulldogs #151 run defense
Pass game
even
36 ranks apart
Chattanooga Mocs #223 pass offense
The Citadel Bulldogs #259 pass defense
Run game
edge Chattanooga Mocs
57 ranks
The Citadel Bulldogs #203 rush offense
Chattanooga Mocs #146 run defense
Pass game
edge The Citadel Bulldogs
189 ranks
The Citadel Bulldogs #26 pass offense
Chattanooga Mocs #215 pass defense
Chattanooga Mocs
Run-heavy · 60% run
Ball-control
Dual-threat QB · 43 rush ypg
The Citadel Bulldogs
Run-heavy · 81% run
Ball-control
Dual-threat QB · 57 rush ypg
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Chattanooga Mocs
DB
Keyshawn Jackson
18 tkl · 5 PD
#69 DB
RB
Kevin Lalin
290 rush yds · 2 TD · 5 rec
#51 RB
LB
Zion Rutledge
24 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.0 TFL
#115 LB
DB
Kam Baah-Slay
12 tkl · 2 PD
#230 DB
The Citadel Bulldogs
LB
Zyion Brown
28 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 3.5 TFL
#19 LB
RB
Gavin Garcia
289 rush yds · 4 TD · 2 rec
#21 RB
DB
J'hari Mosley
18 tkl · 1 INT
#150 DB
RB
Sebastien Boyle
94 rush yds · 3 TD · 4 rec
#137 RB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Chattanooga offense vs The Citadel defense+2.7 pts
The Citadel offense vs Chattanooga defense-3.0 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness-0.5 pts
Power projection before adjustment-3.1
Rest · context onlyHome team on 7 more days rest
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.