Our side
MoneylineETSU to win
ours 67%
Projected score
25–32
UTC – ETSU
2026-10-03 · 3:30 PM
William B. Greene Jr. Stadium · Johnson City, TN
Conference game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Chattanooga lead
14–4
· 18 meetings since 1971
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
even
25 ranks apart
Chattanooga Mocs #127 rush offense
East Tennessee State Buccaneers #102 run defense
Pass game
even
35 ranks apart
Chattanooga Mocs #223 pass offense
East Tennessee State Buccaneers #188 pass defense
Run game
edge East Tennessee State Buccaneers
74 ranks
East Tennessee State Buccaneers #72 rush offense
Chattanooga Mocs #146 run defense
Pass game
even
40 ranks apart
East Tennessee State Buccaneers #175 pass offense
Chattanooga Mocs #215 pass defense
Chattanooga Mocs
Run-heavy · 60% run
Ball-control
Dual-threat QB · 43 rush ypg
East Tennessee State Buccaneers
Balanced · 55% run
Avg pace
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Chattanooga Mocs
DB
Keyshawn Jackson
18 tkl · 5 PD
#69 DB
RB
Kevin Lalin
290 rush yds · 2 TD · 5 rec
#51 RB
LB
Zion Rutledge
24 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.0 TFL
#115 LB
DB
Kam Baah-Slay
12 tkl · 2 PD
#230 DB
East Tennessee State Buccaneers
LB
Dre Delinois
32 tkl · 1.0 TFL
#54 LB
RB
TJ Peyton
253 rush yds · 3 TD · 3 rec
#42 RB
TE
Charlie Browder
11 rec · 137 yds · 1 TD
#22 TE
DL
Charles Woodard
13 tkl · 0.5 TFL
#153 DL
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Chattanooga offense vs East Tennessee State defense-0.6 pts
East Tennessee State offense vs Chattanooga defense+3.6 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness-0.1 pts
Power projection before adjustment+7.1
Altitude · context only312 m higher than the visitor's home elevation
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.