Our side
MoneylineUTC to win
ours 79%
Projected score
18–31
SAM – UTC
2026-10-10 · 1:00 PM
Finley Stadium · Chattanooga, TN
Conference game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Chattanooga lead
16–7–2
· 25 meetings since 1907
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge Chattanooga Mocs
117 ranks
Samford Bulldogs #263 rush offense
Chattanooga Mocs #146 run defense
Pass game
even
27 ranks apart
Samford Bulldogs #242 pass offense
Chattanooga Mocs #215 pass defense
Run game
edge Chattanooga Mocs
91 ranks
Chattanooga Mocs #127 rush offense
Samford Bulldogs #218 run defense
Pass game
even
31 ranks apart
Chattanooga Mocs #223 pass offense
Samford Bulldogs #192 pass defense
Samford Bulldogs
Pass-heavy · 39% run
Ball-control
Chattanooga Mocs
Run-heavy · 60% run
Ball-control
Dual-threat QB · 43 rush ypg
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Samford Bulldogs
DB
LaShon Young
21 tkl · 1 PD
#53 DB
DB
Jalen Nelson
25 tkl
#101 DB
WR
Marquise Henderson
9 rec · 218 yds · 1 TD
#92 WR
LB
Spencer Conn
23 tkl · 2.5 TFL
#90 LB
Chattanooga Mocs
DB
Keyshawn Jackson
18 tkl · 5 PD
#69 DB
RB
Kevin Lalin
290 rush yds · 2 TD · 5 rec
#51 RB
LB
Zion Rutledge
24 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.0 TFL
#115 LB
DB
Kam Baah-Slay
12 tkl · 2 PD
#230 DB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Samford offense vs Chattanooga defense-10.5 pts
Chattanooga offense vs Samford defense-2.3 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness+1.5 pts
Power projection before adjustment+11.3
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).