← Matchups

VMI

· 0-3 · power -22.1 · #384
Our numberUTC -19.4 no book has priced this game

Chattanooga

· 1-2 · power -8.8 · #281
Our side
MoneylineUTC to win ours 88%
Projected score 15–34 VMI – UTC
2026-10-31 · 1:00 PM Finley Stadium · Chattanooga, TN Conference game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series Chattanooga lead 11–3 · 14 meetings since 1971
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge Chattanooga Mocs 110 ranks
VMI Keydets #256 rush offense Chattanooga Mocs #146 run defense
Pass game even 27 ranks apart
VMI Keydets #188 pass offense Chattanooga Mocs #215 pass defense
Run game even 37 ranks apart
Chattanooga Mocs #127 rush offense VMI Keydets #164 run defense
Pass game even 34 ranks apart
Chattanooga Mocs #223 pass offense VMI Keydets #257 pass defense
VMI Keydets Balanced · 50% run Ball-control Chattanooga Mocs Run-heavy · 60% run Ball-control Dual-threat QB · 43 rush ypg

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
VMI Keydets
DB Nic Land 22 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT #74 DB
DB Robert Powell 13 tkl · 2 PD #345 DB
DB EJ Wilborne 12 tkl · 1 INT #522 DB
DB Anthony Allen 10 tkl #876 DB
Chattanooga Mocs
DB Keyshawn Jackson 18 tkl · 5 PD #69 DB
RB Kevin Lalin 290 rush yds · 2 TD · 5 rec #51 RB
LB Zion Rutledge 24 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.0 TFL #115 LB
DB Kam Baah-Slay 12 tkl · 2 PD #230 DB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
VMI Keydets -22.1 -14.8 -7.3 #384
Chattanooga Mocs -8.8 -7.8 -1.0 #281

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
VMI offense vs Chattanooga defense-13.7 pts
Chattanooga offense vs VMI defense-0.5 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness+2.8 pts
Power projection before adjustment+16.6

The projection carries an efficiency adjustment — a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).