Our side
MoneylineMER to win
ours 31%
Projected score
30–22
MER – UTC
2026-11-07 · 1:00 PM
Finley Stadium · Chattanooga, TN
Conference game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Mercer lead
12–11–1
· 24 meetings since 1909
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
even
24 ranks apart
Mercer Bears #122 rush offense
Chattanooga Mocs #146 run defense
Pass game
edge Mercer Bears
202 ranks
Mercer Bears #13 pass offense
Chattanooga Mocs #215 pass defense
Run game
edge Mercer Bears
109 ranks
Chattanooga Mocs #127 rush offense
Mercer Bears #18 run defense
Pass game
even
36 ranks apart
Chattanooga Mocs #223 pass offense
Mercer Bears #187 pass defense
Mercer Bears
Balanced · 51% run
Ball-control
Chattanooga Mocs
Run-heavy · 60% run
Ball-control
Dual-threat QB · 43 rush ypg
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Mercer Bears
DB
Cameron Goggins
8 tkl · 1 PD · 2 INT
#70 DB
WR
Brayden Smith
17 rec · 284 yds · 1 TD
#66 WR
LB
Jyarius Carter
23 tkl · 0.5 sacks · 0.5 TFL
#73 LB
DB
Justin Ferguson
10 tkl · 2 PD · 2 INT
#151 DB
Chattanooga Mocs
DB
Keyshawn Jackson
18 tkl · 5 PD
#69 DB
RB
Kevin Lalin
290 rush yds · 2 TD · 5 rec
#51 RB
LB
Zion Rutledge
24 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.0 TFL
#115 LB
DB
Kam Baah-Slay
12 tkl · 2 PD
#230 DB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Mercer offense vs Chattanooga defense+0.6 pts
Chattanooga offense vs Mercer defense-8.5 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness-1.2 pts
Power projection before adjustment-6.6
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).