← Matchups

Tusculum

· 0-1 · power -10.6 · #303

Our numberETSU -9.0 ~~no book has priced this game~~

East Tennessee State

· 1-2 · power -4.6 · #237

Final TUSC 14 · ETSU 48 ML L our logged sides, graded on the record

Our side

MoneylineTUSC to win logged live now: ETSU to win — the pick stands, the number moved · ours 69%

Our number: TUSC by 2.3 — TUSC to win.

Projected score 26–35 TUSC – ETSU

2026-09-05 · 5:30 PM William B. Greene Jr. Stadium · Johnson City, TN Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

First recorded meeting between these programs

2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played

East Tennessee State Buccaneers Balanced · 55% run Avg pace

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all D1 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025

Tusculum Pioneers

DL Judah Knight #310 DL

DL Greg Williams 10 tkl · 0.5 TFL #311 DL

DL Kevin Jordan 6 tkl #962 DL

DL Kupakwashe Zvandaziva 5 tkl · 0.5 TFL #963 DL

East Tennessee State Buccaneers

LB Dre Delinois 32 tkl · 1.0 TFL #54 LB

RB TJ Peyton 253 rush yds · 3 TD · 3 rec #42 RB

TE Charlie Browder 11 rec · 137 yds · 1 TD #22 TE

DL Charles Woodard 13 tkl · 0.5 TFL #153 DL

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown

Team	Power	Off	Def	Rank
Tusculum Pioneers	-10.6	-5.8	-4.8	#303
East Tennessee State Buccaneers	-4.6	+2.6	-7.2	#237

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from

Tusculum offense vs East Tennessee State defense+1.4 pts

East Tennessee State offense vs Tusculum defense+7.3 pts

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.