Our side
MoneylineETSU to win
ours 55%
Projected score
33–35
WCU – ETSU
2026-09-26 · 3:30 PM
William B. Greene Jr. Stadium · Johnson City, TN
Conference game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
East Tennessee State and Western Carolina split 16 (8–8)
· 16 meetings since 1977
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge East Tennessee State Buccaneers
60 ranks
Western Carolina Catamounts #162 rush offense
East Tennessee State Buccaneers #102 run defense
Pass game
edge Western Carolina Catamounts
164 ranks
Western Carolina Catamounts #24 pass offense
East Tennessee State Buccaneers #188 pass defense
Run game
edge East Tennessee State Buccaneers
147 ranks
East Tennessee State Buccaneers #72 rush offense
Western Carolina Catamounts #219 run defense
Pass game
even
30 ranks apart
East Tennessee State Buccaneers #175 pass offense
Western Carolina Catamounts #205 pass defense
Western Carolina Catamounts
Balanced · 46% run
Avg pace
Dual-threat QB · 36 rush ypg
East Tennessee State Buccaneers
Balanced · 55% run
Avg pace
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Western Carolina Catamounts
DB
Andre Jackson Jr.
18 tkl · 4 PD
#80 DB
DL
Caleb Turner-Allen
8 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL
#144 DL
TE
Bode Burns
10 rec · 99 yds · 1 TD
#40 TE
LB
Joshua Collins
19 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 3.0 TFL
#121 LB
East Tennessee State Buccaneers
LB
Dre Delinois
32 tkl · 1.0 TFL
#54 LB
RB
TJ Peyton
253 rush yds · 3 TD · 3 rec
#42 RB
TE
Charlie Browder
11 rec · 137 yds · 1 TD
#22 TE
DL
Charles Woodard
13 tkl · 0.5 TFL
#153 DL
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Western Carolina offense vs East Tennessee State defense+11.7 pts
East Tennessee State offense vs Western Carolina defense+10.8 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness+0.5 pts
Power projection before adjustment+2.0
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).