Our side
MoneylineETSU to win
ours 30%
Projected score
36–28
ETSU – CIT
2026-10-10 · 2:00 PM
Johnson Hagood Stadium · Charleston, SC
Conference game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
East Tennessee State lead
8–5
· 13 meetings since 1966
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge East Tennessee State Buccaneers
79 ranks
East Tennessee State Buccaneers #72 rush offense
The Citadel Bulldogs #151 run defense
Pass game
edge East Tennessee State Buccaneers
84 ranks
East Tennessee State Buccaneers #175 pass offense
The Citadel Bulldogs #259 pass defense
Run game
edge East Tennessee State Buccaneers
101 ranks
The Citadel Bulldogs #203 rush offense
East Tennessee State Buccaneers #102 run defense
Pass game
edge The Citadel Bulldogs
162 ranks
The Citadel Bulldogs #26 pass offense
East Tennessee State Buccaneers #188 pass defense
East Tennessee State Buccaneers
Balanced · 55% run
Avg pace
The Citadel Bulldogs
Run-heavy · 81% run
Ball-control
Dual-threat QB · 57 rush ypg
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
East Tennessee State Buccaneers
LB
Dre Delinois
32 tkl · 1.0 TFL
#54 LB
RB
TJ Peyton
253 rush yds · 3 TD · 3 rec
#42 RB
TE
Charlie Browder
11 rec · 137 yds · 1 TD
#22 TE
DL
Charles Woodard
13 tkl · 0.5 TFL
#153 DL
The Citadel Bulldogs
LB
Zyion Brown
28 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 3.5 TFL
#19 LB
RB
Gavin Garcia
289 rush yds · 4 TD · 2 rec
#21 RB
DB
J'hari Mosley
18 tkl · 1 INT
#150 DB
RB
Sebastien Boyle
94 rush yds · 3 TD · 4 rec
#137 RB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
East Tennessee State offense vs The Citadel defense+13.0 pts
The Citadel offense vs East Tennessee State defense+3.2 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness-0.9 pts
Power projection before adjustment-7.4
Altitude · context only508 m lower than the visitor's home elevation
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.