← Matchups

Tennessee Tech

· 3-0 · power +6.4 · #109
Our numberTNTC -9.6 no book has priced this game

East Tennessee State

· 1-2 · power -4.6 · #237
Our side
MoneylineTNTC to win ours 28%
Projected score 35–25 TNTC – ETSU
2026-10-31 · 3:30 PM William B. Greene Jr. Stadium · Johnson City, TN Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series East Tennessee State lead 1–0 · 1 meeting since 1981
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles 85 ranks
Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles #17 rush offense East Tennessee State Buccaneers #102 run defense
Pass game edge Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles 117 ranks
Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles #71 pass offense East Tennessee State Buccaneers #188 pass defense
Run game edge Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles 61 ranks
East Tennessee State Buccaneers #72 rush offense Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles #11 run defense
Pass game edge Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles 152 ranks
East Tennessee State Buccaneers #175 pass offense Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles #23 pass defense
Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles Balanced · 49% run Ball-control Dual-threat QB · 37 rush ypg East Tennessee State Buccaneers Balanced · 55% run Avg pace

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles
DL Hudson Tucker 10 tkl · 3.0 sacks · 4.0 TFL #46 DL
WR Gabe Nunez 11 rec · 193 yds · 2 TD #137 WR
WR Tre' Holloway 12 rec · 169 yds · 2 TD #138 WR
RB Qua Ashley 120 rush yds · 1 TD · 4 rec #119 RB
East Tennessee State Buccaneers
LB Dre Delinois 32 tkl · 1.0 TFL #54 LB
RB TJ Peyton 253 rush yds · 3 TD · 3 rec #42 RB
TE Charlie Browder 11 rec · 137 yds · 1 TD #22 TE
DL Charles Woodard 13 tkl · 0.5 TFL #153 DL

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles +6.4 +2.2 +4.2 #109
East Tennessee State Buccaneers -4.6 +2.6 -7.2 #237

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Tennessee Tech offense vs East Tennessee State defense+9.4 pts
East Tennessee State offense vs Tennessee Tech defense-1.6 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness-1.0 pts
Power projection before adjustment-8.6

The projection carries an efficiency adjustment — a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).