Our side
MoneylineALST to win
ours 53%
Projected score
27–28
PV – ALST
2026-11-21 · 3:00 PM
ASU Football Stadium · Montgomery, AL
Conference game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Prairie View A&M lead
12–6
· 18 meetings since 2007
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge Prairie View A&M Panthers
188 ranks
Prairie View A&M Panthers #58 rush offense
Alabama State Hornets #246 run defense
Pass game
even
7 ranks apart
Prairie View A&M Panthers #53 pass offense
Alabama State Hornets #46 pass defense
Run game
even
37 ranks apart
Alabama State Hornets #5 rush offense
Prairie View A&M Panthers #42 run defense
Pass game
even
18 ranks apart
Alabama State Hornets #1 pass offense
Prairie View A&M Panthers #19 pass defense
Prairie View A&M Panthers
Balanced · 53% run
Ball-control
Dual-threat QB · 42 rush ypg
Alabama State Hornets
Run-heavy · 59% run
Ball-control
Dual-threat QB · 65 rush ypg
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Prairie View A&M Panthers
DB
Kamrin Canterbury
27 tkl · 2 PD
#36 DB
DB
Malachi Williams
11 tkl · 1 INT
#102 DB
DB
Nahamani Harris
21 tkl · 2 PD
#123 DB
DL
Malik Gucake
9 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.0 TFL
#154 DL
Alabama State Hornets
RB
Jamarie Hostzclaw
169 rush yds · 3 TD · 4 rec
#111 RB
DB
Ta'Shaun Sims
15 tkl · 1 PD
#301 DB
DB
Zion Crawford
8 tkl · 3 PD
#406 DB
DL
Jaylan Jarrett
6 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL
#542 DL
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Prairie View A&M offense vs Alabama State defense+0.8 pts
Alabama State offense vs Prairie View A&M defense-1.6 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness+0.7 pts
Power projection before adjustment+0.4
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 594 mi
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.