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Arkansas-Pine Bluff

· 1-2 (0-1) · power -18.2 · #366
Our numberALCN -3.3 no book has priced this game

Alcorn State

· 2-1 (1-0) · power -15.3 · #348
Final UAPB 51 · ALCN 53 ML W our logged sides, graded on the record
Our side
MoneylineALCN to win logged ours 57%

Our number: ALCN by 4.8 — ALCN to win.

Projected score 31–34 UAPB – ALCN
2026-09-12 · 7:00 PM Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium · Memphis, TN · neutral Conference game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series Alcorn State lead 8–6 · 14 meetings since 2007
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge Alcorn State Braves 130 ranks
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions #195 rush offense Alcorn State Braves #65 run defense
Pass game edge Alcorn State Braves 231 ranks
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions #258 pass offense Alcorn State Braves #27 pass defense
Run game edge Alcorn State Braves 137 ranks
Alcorn State Braves #103 rush offense Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions #240 run defense
Pass game even 31 ranks apart
Alcorn State Braves #195 pass offense Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions #226 pass defense
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions Balanced · 54% run Ball-control Alcorn State Braves Run-heavy · 60% run Ball-control

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions
DB Michael Henderson 21 tkl · 3 PD · 1 INT #7 DB
DL Derick Simon Jr. 19 tkl · 0.5 sacks · 2.5 TFL #75 DL
DL Keiyhaun Wilks 13 tkl · 3.0 TFL #188 DL
LB Danarius Hilliard 26 tkl · 0.5 sacks · 2.0 TFL #142 LB
Alcorn State Braves
DB Timothy Jasper 31 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT #17 DB
WR Tyree Kelly 11 rec · 231 yds · 3 TD #100 WR
DL Eric Thomas 6 tkl · 1.5 TFL #189 DL
RB Ernest Temple 187 rush yds · 2 TD · 7 rec #78 RB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions -18.2 -2.7 -15.4 #366
Alcorn State Braves -15.3 -3.9 -11.4 #348

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Arkansas-Pine Bluff offense vs Alcorn State defense+8.7 pts
Alcorn State offense vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff defense+11.5 pts

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.