BallKnowMe college football, by the numbers

← Matchups

Alcorn State

· 2-1 (1-0) · power -15.3 · #348
Our numberUSM -29.2 no book has priced this game

Southern Miss

SBC · 1-1 · power +3.5 · #136
Final ALCN 3 · USM 49 ML W Spread L Total W our logged sides, graded on the record
Our side
MoneylineUSM to win logged ours 95%

Our number: USM by 26.1 — USM to win.

Projected score 15–44 ALCN – USM
2026-09-05 · 5:00 PM M. M. Roberts Stadium · Hattiesburg, MS Early season

The books 5 account books · tap any price — the ticket builds at that book

Book ALCN spreadUSM spread OverUnder ALCN winUSM win ALCN TT overALCN TT under USM TT overUSM TT under
DraftKings — — — —
FanDuel — — — —
BetMGM — — — —
ESPN Bet — — — —
Caesars — — — —

The gold price is the best available on that side; a gold ★ marks the side our number implies — a read, not a pick. TT is a team total — that team’s own points, not the game’s; columns are empty where no book hangs one. Send to book opens whichever book you tapped, not the one we would have picked. Prices are the books’ own.

Public vs booksbets vs money · Action Network captured in-game spread ALCN 56% bets · 71% money total Under 53% bets · 45% money · money Over ML USM 98% bets · 98% money
Series Southern Miss lead 4–0 · 4 meetings since 2009
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge Alcorn State Braves 77 ranks
Alcorn State Braves #103 rush offense Southern Miss Golden Eagles #180 run defense
Pass game edge Southern Miss Golden Eagles 159 ranks
Alcorn State Braves #195 pass offense Southern Miss Golden Eagles #36 pass defense
Run game edge Alcorn State Braves 72 ranks
Southern Miss Golden Eagles #137 rush offense Alcorn State Braves #65 run defense
Pass game edge Alcorn State Braves 64 ranks
Southern Miss Golden Eagles #91 pass offense Alcorn State Braves #27 pass defense
Alcorn State Braves Run-heavy · 60% run Ball-control Southern Miss Golden Eagles Balanced · 51% run Avg pace
Charles Huff · 39-25

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Alcorn State Braves
DB Timothy Jasper 31 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT #17 DB
WR Tyree Kelly 11 rec · 231 yds · 3 TD #100 WR
DL Eric Thomas 6 tkl · 1.5 TFL #189 DL
RB Ernest Temple 187 rush yds · 2 TD · 7 rec #78 RB
Southern Miss Golden Eagles
RB Steven Robinson 174 rush yds · 3 TD · 1 rec #37 RB
DB Kobi Albert 7 tkl · 1 PD · 3 INT #87 DB
DB Laquan Robinson 17 tkl · 1 PD #192 DB
LB Mathis Haygood 15 tkl · 0.5 sacks · 2.5 TFL #133 LB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Alcorn State Braves -15.3 -3.9 -11.4 #348
Southern Miss Golden EaglesSBC +3.5 +1.6 +1.9 #136

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Alcorn State offense vs Southern Miss defense-5.8 pts
Southern Miss offense vs Alcorn State defense+13.0 pts

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.