Our side
MoneylineGRAM to win
ours 76%
Projected score
26–37
ALCN – GRAM
2026-10-03 · 3:00 PM
Eddie G. Robinson Memorial Stadium · Grambling, LA
Conference game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Grambling lead
12–8
· 20 meetings since 1977
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
even
11 ranks apart
Alcorn State Braves #103 rush offense
Grambling Tigers #92 run defense
Pass game
edge Grambling Tigers
155 ranks
Alcorn State Braves #195 pass offense
Grambling Tigers #40 pass defense
Run game
edge Alcorn State Braves
111 ranks
Grambling Tigers #176 rush offense
Alcorn State Braves #65 run defense
Pass game
edge Alcorn State Braves
136 ranks
Grambling Tigers #163 pass offense
Alcorn State Braves #27 pass defense
Alcorn State Braves
Run-heavy · 60% run
Ball-control
Grambling Tigers
Run-heavy · 60% run
Ball-control
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Alcorn State Braves
DB
Timothy Jasper
31 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
#17 DB
WR
Tyree Kelly
11 rec · 231 yds · 3 TD
#100 WR
DL
Eric Thomas
6 tkl · 1.5 TFL
#189 DL
RB
Ernest Temple
187 rush yds · 2 TD · 7 rec
#78 RB
Grambling Tigers
DB
Jalen Guillard
14 tkl · 4 PD
#185 DB
RB
Byron Eaton Jr.
79 rush yds · 1 TD · 5 rec
#120 RB
WR
Jordan Bride
14 rec · 221 yds
#181 WR
WR
Tyson George
15 rec · 160 yds · 1 TD
#194 WR
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Alcorn State offense vs Grambling defense+2.2 pts
Grambling offense vs Alcorn State defense+10.5 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness+0.1 pts
Power projection before adjustment+11.4
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).