Our side
MoneylineALCN to win
ours 26%
Projected score
35–25
ALCN – MVSU
2026-10-31 · 3:00 PM
Rice-Totten Stadium · Itta Bena, MS
Conference game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Alcorn State lead
17–3
· 20 meetings since 1977
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge Alcorn State Braves
102 ranks
Alcorn State Braves #103 rush offense
Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils #205 run defense
Pass game
edge Alcorn State Braves
61 ranks
Alcorn State Braves #195 pass offense
Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils #256 pass defense
Run game
edge Alcorn State Braves
196 ranks
Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils #261 rush offense
Alcorn State Braves #65 run defense
Pass game
edge Alcorn State Braves
209 ranks
Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils #236 pass offense
Alcorn State Braves #27 pass defense
Alcorn State Braves
Run-heavy · 60% run
Ball-control
Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils
Balanced · 45% run
Ball-control
Dual-threat QB · 38 rush ypg
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Alcorn State Braves
DB
Timothy Jasper
31 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
#17 DB
WR
Tyree Kelly
11 rec · 231 yds · 3 TD
#100 WR
DL
Eric Thomas
6 tkl · 1.5 TFL
#189 DL
RB
Ernest Temple
187 rush yds · 2 TD · 7 rec
#78 RB
Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils
DB
Tyrell Johnson
6 tkl · 1 INT
#81 DB
LB
Douglas Franklin
15 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 3.5 TFL
#146 LB
TE
Jaylen King
12 rec · 85 yds · 1 TD
#53 TE
DB
Jamari Stokes
11 tkl · 2 PD · 1 INT
#322 DB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Alcorn State offense vs Mississippi Valley State defense+9.3 pts
Mississippi Valley State offense vs Alcorn State defense-2.3 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness-1.1 pts
Power projection before adjustment-9.2
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).