Our side
MoneylineMER to win
ours 69%
Projected score
27–35
WCU – MER
2026-10-10 · 3:00 PM
Five Star Stadium · Macon, GA
Conference game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Mercer lead
10–2
· 12 meetings since 2014
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge Mercer Bears
144 ranks
Western Carolina Catamounts #162 rush offense
Mercer Bears #18 run defense
Pass game
edge Western Carolina Catamounts
163 ranks
Western Carolina Catamounts #24 pass offense
Mercer Bears #187 pass defense
Run game
edge Mercer Bears
97 ranks
Mercer Bears #122 rush offense
Western Carolina Catamounts #219 run defense
Pass game
edge Mercer Bears
192 ranks
Mercer Bears #13 pass offense
Western Carolina Catamounts #205 pass defense
Western Carolina Catamounts
Balanced · 46% run
Avg pace
Dual-threat QB · 36 rush ypg
Mercer Bears
Balanced · 51% run
Ball-control
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Western Carolina Catamounts
DB
Andre Jackson Jr.
18 tkl · 4 PD
#80 DB
DL
Caleb Turner-Allen
8 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL
#144 DL
TE
Bode Burns
10 rec · 99 yds · 1 TD
#40 TE
LB
Joshua Collins
19 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 3.0 TFL
#121 LB
Mercer Bears
DB
Cameron Goggins
8 tkl · 1 PD · 2 INT
#70 DB
WR
Brayden Smith
17 rec · 284 yds · 1 TD
#66 WR
LB
Jyarius Carter
23 tkl · 0.5 sacks · 0.5 TFL
#73 LB
DB
Justin Ferguson
10 tkl · 2 PD · 2 INT
#151 DB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Western Carolina offense vs Mercer defense+3.8 pts
Mercer offense vs Western Carolina defense+7.8 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness+0.9 pts
Power projection before adjustment+7.1
Altitude · context only517 m lower than the visitor's home elevation
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.