← Matchups

Mercer

· 2-1 (0-1) · power +0.3 · #168
Our numberTNTC -8.8 no book has priced this game

Tennessee Tech

· 3-0 · power +6.4 · #109
Our side
MoneylineTNTC to win ours 71%
Projected score 23–32 MER – TNTC
2026-11-14 · 2:30 PM Tucker Stadium · Cookeville, TN Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series Mercer and Tennessee Tech split 2 (1–1) · 2 meetings since 2015
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles 111 ranks
Mercer Bears #122 rush offense Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles #11 run defense
Pass game even 10 ranks apart
Mercer Bears #13 pass offense Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles #23 pass defense
Run game even 1 ranks apart
Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles #17 rush offense Mercer Bears #18 run defense
Pass game edge Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles 116 ranks
Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles #71 pass offense Mercer Bears #187 pass defense
Mercer Bears Balanced · 51% run Ball-control Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles Balanced · 49% run Ball-control Dual-threat QB · 37 rush ypg

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Mercer Bears
DB Cameron Goggins 8 tkl · 1 PD · 2 INT #70 DB
WR Brayden Smith 17 rec · 284 yds · 1 TD #66 WR
LB Jyarius Carter 23 tkl · 0.5 sacks · 0.5 TFL #73 LB
DB Justin Ferguson 10 tkl · 2 PD · 2 INT #151 DB
Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles
DL Hudson Tucker 10 tkl · 3.0 sacks · 4.0 TFL #46 DL
WR Gabe Nunez 11 rec · 193 yds · 2 TD #137 WR
WR Tre' Holloway 12 rec · 169 yds · 2 TD #138 WR
RB Qua Ashley 120 rush yds · 1 TD · 4 rec #119 RB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Mercer Bears +0.3 -0.4 +0.8 #168
Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles +6.4 +2.2 +4.2 #109

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Mercer offense vs Tennessee Tech defense-4.6 pts
Tennessee Tech offense vs Mercer defense+1.4 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness-0.3 pts
Power projection before adjustment+9.2

The projection carries an efficiency adjustment — a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).