← Matchups

Western Carolina

· 1-2 · power -3.8 · #226
Our numberWCU -12.7 no book has priced this game

Samford

· 0-3 · power -17.0 · #359
Our side
MoneylineWCU to win ours 22%
Projected score 36–23 WCU – SAM
2026-11-14 · 3:30 PM Seibert Stadium · Birmingham, AL Conference game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series Samford lead 13–5 · 18 meetings since 2008
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge Western Carolina Catamounts 56 ranks
Western Carolina Catamounts #162 rush offense Samford Bulldogs #218 run defense
Pass game edge Western Carolina Catamounts 168 ranks
Western Carolina Catamounts #24 pass offense Samford Bulldogs #192 pass defense
Run game even 44 ranks apart
Samford Bulldogs #263 rush offense Western Carolina Catamounts #219 run defense
Pass game even 37 ranks apart
Samford Bulldogs #242 pass offense Western Carolina Catamounts #205 pass defense
Western Carolina Catamounts Balanced · 46% run Avg pace Dual-threat QB · 36 rush ypg Samford Bulldogs Pass-heavy · 39% run Ball-control

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Western Carolina Catamounts
DB Andre Jackson Jr. 18 tkl · 4 PD #80 DB
DL Caleb Turner-Allen 8 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL #144 DL
TE Bode Burns 10 rec · 99 yds · 1 TD #40 TE
LB Joshua Collins 19 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 3.0 TFL #121 LB
Samford Bulldogs
DB LaShon Young 21 tkl · 1 PD #53 DB
DB Jalen Nelson 25 tkl #101 DB
WR Marquise Henderson 9 rec · 218 yds · 1 TD #92 WR
LB Spencer Conn 23 tkl · 2.5 TFL #90 LB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Western Carolina Catamounts -3.8 +4.5 -8.3 #226
Samford Bulldogs -17.0 -11.6 -5.4 #359

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Western Carolina offense vs Samford defense+9.9 pts
Samford offense vs Western Carolina defense-3.3 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness-1.9 pts
Power projection before adjustment-10.8
Altitude · context only447 m lower than the visitor's home elevation

The projection carries an efficiency adjustment — a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.