← Matchups

Tennessee Tech

· 3-0 · power +6.4 · #109
Our numberTNTC -20.2 no book has priced this game

The Citadel

· 1-2 (0-1) · power -14.5 · #340
Our side
MoneylineTNTC to win ours 11%
Projected score 39–19 TNTC – CIT
2026-10-24 · 2:00 PM Johnson Hagood Stadium · Charleston, SC Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series The Citadel lead 1–0 · 1 meeting since 1960
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles 134 ranks
Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles #17 rush offense The Citadel Bulldogs #151 run defense
Pass game edge Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles 188 ranks
Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles #71 pass offense The Citadel Bulldogs #259 pass defense
Run game edge Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles 192 ranks
The Citadel Bulldogs #203 rush offense Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles #11 run defense
Pass game even 3 ranks apart
The Citadel Bulldogs #26 pass offense Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles #23 pass defense
Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles Balanced · 49% run Ball-control Dual-threat QB · 37 rush ypg The Citadel Bulldogs Run-heavy · 81% run Ball-control Dual-threat QB · 57 rush ypg

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles
DL Hudson Tucker 10 tkl · 3.0 sacks · 4.0 TFL #46 DL
WR Gabe Nunez 11 rec · 193 yds · 2 TD #137 WR
WR Tre' Holloway 12 rec · 169 yds · 2 TD #138 WR
RB Qua Ashley 120 rush yds · 1 TD · 4 rec #119 RB
The Citadel Bulldogs
LB Zyion Brown 28 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 3.5 TFL #19 LB
RB Gavin Garcia 289 rush yds · 4 TD · 2 rec #21 RB
DB J'hari Mosley 18 tkl · 1 INT #150 DB
RB Sebastien Boyle 94 rush yds · 3 TD · 4 rec #137 RB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles +6.4 +2.2 +4.2 #109
The Citadel Bulldogs -14.5 -4.0 -10.5 #340

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Tennessee Tech offense vs The Citadel defense+12.7 pts
The Citadel offense vs Tennessee Tech defense-8.2 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness-1.4 pts
Power projection before adjustment-18.8
Altitude · context only337 m lower than the visitor's home elevation

The projection carries an efficiency adjustment — a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.