← Matchups

The Citadel

· 1-2 (0-1) · power -14.5 · #340
Our numberWCU -12.8 no book has priced this game

Western Carolina

· 1-2 · power -3.8 · #226
Our side
MoneylineWCU to win ours 79%
Projected score 27–39 CIT – WCU
2026-11-21 · 1:00 PM E.J. Whitmire Stadium · Cullowhee, NC Conference game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series The Citadel lead 17–12 · 29 meetings since 1972
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game even 16 ranks apart
The Citadel Bulldogs #203 rush offense Western Carolina Catamounts #219 run defense
Pass game edge The Citadel Bulldogs 179 ranks
The Citadel Bulldogs #26 pass offense Western Carolina Catamounts #205 pass defense
Run game even 11 ranks apart
Western Carolina Catamounts #162 rush offense The Citadel Bulldogs #151 run defense
Pass game edge Western Carolina Catamounts 235 ranks
Western Carolina Catamounts #24 pass offense The Citadel Bulldogs #259 pass defense
The Citadel Bulldogs Run-heavy · 81% run Ball-control Dual-threat QB · 57 rush ypg Western Carolina Catamounts Balanced · 46% run Avg pace Dual-threat QB · 36 rush ypg

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
The Citadel Bulldogs
LB Zyion Brown 28 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 3.5 TFL #19 LB
RB Gavin Garcia 289 rush yds · 4 TD · 2 rec #21 RB
DB J'hari Mosley 18 tkl · 1 INT #150 DB
RB Sebastien Boyle 94 rush yds · 3 TD · 4 rec #137 RB
Western Carolina Catamounts
DB Andre Jackson Jr. 18 tkl · 4 PD #80 DB
DL Caleb Turner-Allen 8 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL #144 DL
TE Bode Burns 10 rec · 99 yds · 1 TD #40 TE
LB Joshua Collins 19 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 3.0 TFL #121 LB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
The Citadel Bulldogs -14.5 -4.0 -10.5 #340
Western Carolina Catamounts -3.8 +4.5 -8.3 #226

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
The Citadel offense vs Western Carolina defense+4.3 pts
Western Carolina offense vs The Citadel defense+15.0 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness-1.1 pts
Power projection before adjustment+13.9
Altitude · context only650 m higher than the visitor's home elevation

The projection carries an efficiency adjustment — a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.