Our side
MoneylineTXSO to win
ours 53%
Projected score
32–33
UAPB – TXSO
2026-11-21 · 4:00 PM
Shell Energy Stadium · Houston, TX
Conference game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Texas Southern lead
10–8
· 18 meetings since 2007
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge Texas Southern Tigers
79 ranks
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions #195 rush offense
Texas Southern Tigers #116 run defense
Pass game
edge Texas Southern Tigers
110 ranks
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions #258 pass offense
Texas Southern Tigers #148 pass defense
Run game
edge Texas Southern Tigers
143 ranks
Texas Southern Tigers #97 rush offense
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions #240 run defense
Pass game
even
22 ranks apart
Texas Southern Tigers #204 pass offense
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions #226 pass defense
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions
Balanced · 54% run
Ball-control
Texas Southern Tigers
Run-heavy · 62% run
Ball-control
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions
DB
Michael Henderson
21 tkl · 3 PD · 1 INT
#7 DB
DL
Derick Simon Jr.
19 tkl · 0.5 sacks · 2.5 TFL
#75 DL
DL
Keiyhaun Wilks
13 tkl · 3.0 TFL
#188 DL
LB
Danarius Hilliard
26 tkl · 0.5 sacks · 2.0 TFL
#142 LB
Texas Southern Tigers
LB
Donovan Jones
22 tkl · 2.5 TFL
#76 LB
DL
Jordan Thompson
10 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL
#143 DL
RB
Athean Renfro Jr.
293 rush yds · 2 TD · 3 rec
#63 RB
DL
Thurman Rayborn
5 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL
#176 DL
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Arkansas-Pine Bluff offense vs Texas Southern defense+8.7 pts
Texas Southern offense vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff defense+7.4 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness-0.0 pts
Power projection before adjustment+1.4
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).