← Matchups

Mississippi Valley State

· 1-2 · power -27.0 · #391
Our numberFAMU -14.9 no book has priced this game

Florida A&M

· 1-2 · power -13.1 · #330
Our side
MoneylineFAMU to win ours 82%
Projected score 20–35 MVSU – FAMU
2026-11-14 · 3:00 PM Bragg Memorial Stadium · Tallahassee, FL Conference game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series Florida A&M lead 4–2 · 6 meetings since 2013
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game even 33 ranks apart
Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils #261 rush offense Florida A&M Rattlers #228 run defense
Pass game even 6 ranks apart
Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils #236 pass offense Florida A&M Rattlers #242 pass defense
Run game even 32 ranks apart
Florida A&M Rattlers #173 rush offense Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils #205 run defense
Pass game edge Florida A&M Rattlers 114 ranks
Florida A&M Rattlers #142 pass offense Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils #256 pass defense
Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils Balanced · 45% run Ball-control Dual-threat QB · 38 rush ypg Florida A&M Rattlers Balanced · 56% run Ball-control

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils
DB Tyrell Johnson 6 tkl · 1 INT #81 DB
LB Douglas Franklin 15 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 3.5 TFL #146 LB
TE Jaylen King 12 rec · 85 yds · 1 TD #53 TE
DB Jamari Stokes 11 tkl · 2 PD · 1 INT #322 DB
Florida A&M Rattlers
DB Justin Bostic 10 tkl · 2 INT #44 DB
LB Denzel Johnson 14 tkl #218 LB
P Bobby Engstler 25 punts · 40.0 yd avg #39 P
DB Caleb McKenzie 4 tkl #687 DB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils -27.0 -13.7 -13.2 #391
Florida A&M Rattlers -13.1 -6.9 -6.2 #330

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Mississippi Valley State offense vs Florida A&M defense-7.5 pts
Florida A&M offense vs Mississippi Valley State defense+6.3 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness-2.2 pts
Power projection before adjustment+17.1
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 414 mi

The projection carries an efficiency adjustment — a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.