← Matchups

Grambling

· 2-1 · power -7.0 · #266
Our numberGRAM -15.3 no book has priced this game

Southern

· 1-2 (0-1) · power -19.5 · #373
Our side
MoneylineGRAM to win ours 17%
Projected score 37–22 GRAM – SOU
2026-11-28 · 2:00 PM Caesars Superdome · New Orleans, LA · neutral Conference game Indoors Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series Southern lead 11–9 · 20 meetings since 1977
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game even 26 ranks apart
Grambling Tigers #176 rush offense Southern Jaguars #202 run defense
Pass game even 19 ranks apart
Grambling Tigers #163 pass offense Southern Jaguars #182 pass defense
Run game even 21 ranks apart
Southern Jaguars #113 rush offense Grambling Tigers #92 run defense
Pass game edge Grambling Tigers 179 ranks
Southern Jaguars #219 pass offense Grambling Tigers #40 pass defense
Grambling Tigers Run-heavy · 60% run Ball-control Southern Jaguars Run-heavy · 65% run Ball-control

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Grambling Tigers
DB Jalen Guillard 14 tkl · 4 PD #185 DB
RB Byron Eaton Jr. 79 rush yds · 1 TD · 5 rec #120 RB
WR Jordan Bride 14 rec · 221 yds #181 WR
WR Tyson George 15 rec · 160 yds · 1 TD #194 WR
Southern Jaguars
DB Tay James 8 tkl · 1 INT #79 DB
DL Ckelby Givens 6 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 4.0 TFL #119 DL
RB Trey Holly 141 rush yds · 2 TD · 5 rec #184 RB
DB Ty Lee 9 tkl · 1 PD #525 DB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Grambling Tigers -7.0 -0.9 -6.1 #266
Southern Jaguars -19.5 -8.4 -11.1 #373

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Grambling offense vs Southern defense+10.2 pts
Southern offense vs Grambling defense-2.2 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness-2.6 pts
Power projection before adjustment-12.7

The projection carries an efficiency adjustment — a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).