Our side
MoneylineTXSO to win
ours 73%
Projected score
24–34
MVSU – TXSO
2026-10-10 · 3:00 PM
Shell Energy Stadium · Houston, TX
Conference game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Texas Southern lead
8–6
· 14 meetings since 1977
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge Texas Southern Tigers
145 ranks
Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils #261 rush offense
Texas Southern Tigers #116 run defense
Pass game
edge Texas Southern Tigers
88 ranks
Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils #236 pass offense
Texas Southern Tigers #148 pass defense
Run game
edge Texas Southern Tigers
108 ranks
Texas Southern Tigers #97 rush offense
Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils #205 run defense
Pass game
edge Texas Southern Tigers
52 ranks
Texas Southern Tigers #204 pass offense
Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils #256 pass defense
Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils
Balanced · 45% run
Ball-control
Dual-threat QB · 38 rush ypg
Texas Southern Tigers
Run-heavy · 62% run
Ball-control
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils
DB
Tyrell Johnson
6 tkl · 1 INT
#81 DB
LB
Douglas Franklin
15 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 3.5 TFL
#146 LB
TE
Jaylen King
12 rec · 85 yds · 1 TD
#53 TE
DB
Jamari Stokes
11 tkl · 2 PD · 1 INT
#322 DB
Texas Southern Tigers
LB
Donovan Jones
22 tkl · 2.5 TFL
#76 LB
DL
Jordan Thompson
10 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL
#143 DL
RB
Athean Renfro Jr.
293 rush yds · 2 TD · 3 rec
#63 RB
DL
Thurman Rayborn
5 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL
#176 DL
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Mississippi Valley State offense vs Texas Southern defense-2.3 pts
Texas Southern offense vs Mississippi Valley State defense+5.2 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness-0.6 pts
Power projection before adjustment+10.5
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).