← Matchups

Kentucky State

· 0-1 · power -23.8 · #388

Our numberSOU -7.3 ~~no book has priced this game~~

Southern

· 1-2 (0-1) · power -19.5 · #373

Final KENT 15 · SOU 34 ML L our logged sides, graded on the record

Our side

MoneylineKENT to win logged live now: SOU to win — the pick stands, the number moved · ours 66%

Our number: KENT by 0.9 — KENT to win.

Projected score 26–33 KENT – SOU

2026-09-05 · 8:00 PM A.W. Mumford Stadium · Baton Rouge, LA Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

First recorded meeting between these programs

2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played

Southern Jaguars Run-heavy · 65% run Ball-control

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all D1 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025

Kentucky State Thorobreds

DL Kendrick Curry 7 tkl · 1.5 TFL #373 DL

DL Roman Hernandez 12 tkl #374 DL

DL Elijah Henderson 7 tkl · 1.5 TFL #543 DL

WR Darius Cyprian 8 rec · 77 yds #506 WR

Southern Jaguars

DB Tay James 8 tkl · 1 INT #79 DB

DL Ckelby Givens 6 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 4.0 TFL #119 DL

RB Trey Holly 141 rush yds · 2 TD · 5 rec #184 RB

DB Ty Lee 9 tkl · 1 PD #525 DB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown

Team	Power	Off	Def	Rank
Kentucky State Thorobreds	-23.8	-11.1	-12.8	#388
Southern Jaguars	-19.5	-8.4	-11.1	#373

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from

Kentucky State offense vs Southern defense+0.1 pts

Southern offense vs Kentucky State defense+4.4 pts

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.