Our side
MoneylineTXSO to win
ours 58%
Projected score
28–31
SOU – TXSO
2026-10-24 · 3:00 PM
Shell Energy Stadium · Houston, TX
Conference game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Southern lead
13–6–1
· 20 meetings since 1977
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
even
3 ranks apart
Southern Jaguars #113 rush offense
Texas Southern Tigers #116 run defense
Pass game
edge Texas Southern Tigers
71 ranks
Southern Jaguars #219 pass offense
Texas Southern Tigers #148 pass defense
Run game
edge Texas Southern Tigers
105 ranks
Texas Southern Tigers #97 rush offense
Southern Jaguars #202 run defense
Pass game
even
22 ranks apart
Texas Southern Tigers #204 pass offense
Southern Jaguars #182 pass defense
Southern Jaguars
Run-heavy · 65% run
Ball-control
Texas Southern Tigers
Run-heavy · 62% run
Ball-control
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Southern Jaguars
DB
Tay James
8 tkl · 1 INT
#79 DB
DL
Ckelby Givens
6 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 4.0 TFL
#119 DL
RB
Trey Holly
141 rush yds · 2 TD · 5 rec
#184 RB
DB
Ty Lee
9 tkl · 1 PD
#525 DB
Texas Southern Tigers
LB
Donovan Jones
22 tkl · 2.5 TFL
#76 LB
DL
Jordan Thompson
10 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL
#143 DL
RB
Athean Renfro Jr.
293 rush yds · 2 TD · 3 rec
#63 RB
DL
Thurman Rayborn
5 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL
#176 DL
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Southern offense vs Texas Southern defense+3.1 pts
Texas Southern offense vs Southern defense+3.1 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness+0.3 pts
Power projection before adjustment+2.9
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).