Our side
MoneylineLAM to win
ours 97%
Projected score
11–42
NWST – LAM
2026-10-03 · 7:00 PM
Provost Umphrey Stadium · Beaumont, TX
Conference game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Northwestern State lead
10–7
· 17 meetings since 1976
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge Lamar Cardinals
222 ranks
Northwestern State Demons #259 rush offense
Lamar Cardinals #37 run defense
Pass game
edge Lamar Cardinals
232 ranks
Northwestern State Demons #265 pass offense
Lamar Cardinals #33 pass defense
Run game
even
37 ranks apart
Lamar Cardinals #228 rush offense
Northwestern State Demons #265 run defense
Pass game
even
37 ranks apart
Lamar Cardinals #225 pass offense
Northwestern State Demons #262 pass defense
Northwestern State Demons
Run-heavy · 63% run
Ball-control
Lamar Cardinals
Run-heavy · 61% run
Ball-control
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Northwestern State Demons
DL
Geoffrey Ojeh
7 tkl · 1.0 TFL
#296 DL
DB
Joe Natali
14 tkl
#481 DB
LB
Danny Sears
14 tkl · 0.5 sacks · 0.5 TFL
#370 LB
DB
Diego Sanchez
9 tkl · 1 PD
#676 DB
Lamar Cardinals
DB
Mar Mar Evans
16 tkl · 4 PD
#54 DB
TE
Davin Driskell
10 rec · 99 yds · 3 TD
#12 TE
DB
Lanar Kelley
11 tkl · 1 INT
#86 DB
DB
Bryce McDonald
17 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
#146 DB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Northwestern State offense vs Lamar defense-15.6 pts
Lamar offense vs Northwestern State defense+9.3 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness+1.5 pts
Power projection before adjustment+28.7
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).