Our side
MoneylineHCU to win
ours 25%
Projected score
36–25
HCU – NWST
2026-11-14 · 2:00 PM
Turpin Stadium · Natchitoches, LA
Conference game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Northwestern State lead
5–4
· 9 meetings since 2017
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge Houston Christian Huskies
63 ranks
Houston Christian Huskies #202 rush offense
Northwestern State Demons #265 run defense
Pass game
even
1 ranks apart
Houston Christian Huskies #261 pass offense
Northwestern State Demons #262 pass defense
Run game
edge Houston Christian Huskies
87 ranks
Northwestern State Demons #259 rush offense
Houston Christian Huskies #172 run defense
Pass game
edge Houston Christian Huskies
177 ranks
Northwestern State Demons #265 pass offense
Houston Christian Huskies #88 pass defense
Houston Christian Huskies
Balanced · 55% run
Ball-control
Northwestern State Demons
Run-heavy · 63% run
Ball-control
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Houston Christian Huskies
LB
Jayven Anderson
21 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 7.0 TFL
#25 LB
P
Julian Maceri
5 punts · 45.2 yd avg
#9 P
DL
Calvin Kalu-Alexander
6 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 2.5 TFL
#351 DL
DB
Darius Bean
17 tkl · 1 PD
#341 DB
Northwestern State Demons
DL
Geoffrey Ojeh
7 tkl · 1.0 TFL
#296 DL
DB
Joe Natali
14 tkl
#481 DB
LB
Danny Sears
14 tkl · 0.5 sacks · 0.5 TFL
#370 LB
DB
Diego Sanchez
9 tkl · 1 PD
#676 DB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Houston Christian offense vs Northwestern State defense+9.5 pts
Northwestern State offense vs Houston Christian defense-1.4 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness-2.5 pts
Power projection before adjustment-8.6
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).