Our side
MoneylineMCN to win
ours 62%
Projected score
24–29
NICH – MCN
2026-10-31 · 3:00 PM
Navarre Stadium · Lake Charles, LA
Conference game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
McNeese lead
16–9
· 25 meetings since 1977
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
even
43 ranks apart
Nicholls Colonels #198 rush offense
McNeese Cowboys #241 run defense
Pass game
edge McNeese Cowboys
135 ranks
Nicholls Colonels #212 pass offense
McNeese Cowboys #77 pass defense
Run game
edge McNeese Cowboys
167 ranks
McNeese Cowboys #82 rush offense
Nicholls Colonels #249 run defense
Pass game
edge Nicholls Colonels
144 ranks
McNeese Cowboys #206 pass offense
Nicholls Colonels #62 pass defense
Nicholls Colonels
Run-heavy · 59% run
Ball-control
McNeese Cowboys
Run-heavy · 59% run
Ball-control
Dual-threat QB · 43 rush ypg
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Nicholls Colonels
DB
Skylar Husband
20 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
#71 DB
DL
Alex Villavaso
9 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 3.0 TFL
#102 DL
LB
Kennon Loftin
24 tkl
#96 LB
WR
Jackson Dufrene
6 rec · 105 yds · 3 TD
#101 WR
McNeese Cowboys
DL
RJ Staten
11 tkl · 1.5 sacks · 3.0 TFL
#53 DL
WR
Elisha Edwards
16 rec · 240 yds · 3 TD
#32 WR
RB
Omiri Wiggins
217 rush yds · 2 TD · 9 rec
#25 RB
WR
Curtis Deville
12 rec · 213 yds · 3 TD
#54 WR
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Nicholls offense vs McNeese defense-3.0 pts
McNeese offense vs Nicholls defense-1.5 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness+0.7 pts
Power projection before adjustment+4.3
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).