← Matchups

Houston Christian

· 2-1 (1-0) · power -16.2 · #356
Our numberLAM -16.7 no book has priced this game

Lamar

· 2-1 · power -2.1 · #202
Our side
MoneylineLAM to win ours 85%
Projected score 16–33 HCU – LAM
2026-10-24 · 4:00 PM Provost Umphrey Stadium · Beaumont, TX Conference game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series Lamar lead 5–3 · 8 meetings since 2014
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge Lamar Cardinals 165 ranks
Houston Christian Huskies #202 rush offense Lamar Cardinals #37 run defense
Pass game edge Lamar Cardinals 228 ranks
Houston Christian Huskies #261 pass offense Lamar Cardinals #33 pass defense
Run game edge Houston Christian Huskies 56 ranks
Lamar Cardinals #228 rush offense Houston Christian Huskies #172 run defense
Pass game edge Houston Christian Huskies 137 ranks
Lamar Cardinals #225 pass offense Houston Christian Huskies #88 pass defense
Houston Christian Huskies Balanced · 55% run Ball-control Lamar Cardinals Run-heavy · 61% run Ball-control

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Houston Christian Huskies
LB Jayven Anderson 21 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 7.0 TFL #25 LB
P Julian Maceri 5 punts · 45.2 yd avg #9 P
DL Calvin Kalu-Alexander 6 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 2.5 TFL #351 DL
DB Darius Bean 17 tkl · 1 PD #341 DB
Lamar Cardinals
DB Mar Mar Evans 16 tkl · 4 PD #54 DB
TE Davin Driskell 10 rec · 99 yds · 3 TD #12 TE
DB Lanar Kelley 11 tkl · 1 INT #86 DB
DB Bryce McDonald 17 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT #146 DB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Houston Christian Huskies -16.2 -7.9 -8.3 #356
Lamar Cardinals -2.1 -8.1 +6.0 #202

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Houston Christian offense vs Lamar defense-13.9 pts
Lamar offense vs Houston Christian defense+0.2 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness-0.6 pts
Power projection before adjustment+17.3

The projection carries an efficiency adjustment — a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).