← Matchups

Incarnate Word

· 1-1 · power +0.1 · #174
Our numberUIW -7.6 no book has priced this game

East Texas A&M

· 1-2 (1-1) · power -10.0 · #296
Our side
MoneylineUIW to win ours 32%
Projected score 34–26 UIW – ETAM
2026-11-21 · 4:00 PM Memorial Stadium (Commerce, TX) · Commerce, TX Conference game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series Incarnate Word lead 3–1 · 4 meetings since 2022
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game even 36 ranks apart
Incarnate Word Cardinals #160 rush offense East Texas A&M Lions #196 run defense
Pass game edge Incarnate Word Cardinals 56 ranks
Incarnate Word Cardinals #172 pass offense East Texas A&M Lions #228 pass defense
Run game edge Incarnate Word Cardinals 115 ranks
East Texas A&M Lions #166 rush offense Incarnate Word Cardinals #51 run defense
Pass game edge Incarnate Word Cardinals 68 ranks
East Texas A&M Lions #237 pass offense Incarnate Word Cardinals #169 pass defense
Incarnate Word Cardinals Balanced · 52% run Avg pace East Texas A&M Lions Balanced · 50% run Ball-control

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Incarnate Word Cardinals
DL Jeremiah Young 7 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 3.0 TFL #28 DL
RB Lontrell Turner 153 rush yds · 3 TD · 1 rec #60 RB
LB Christian Barney 18 tkl · 1.0 TFL #103 LB
WR Isaiah Champagne 12 rec · 141 yds · 1 TD #159 WR
East Texas A&M Lions
DB Tramar Gilbert 23 tkl · 1 PD #39 DB
WR Micah Simpson 17 rec · 311 yds · 2 TD #29 WR
DL Duncan Parham 12 tkl · 1.5 sacks · 2.0 TFL #86 DL
DB Jamari Mosley 11 tkl · 2 PD #220 DB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Incarnate Word Cardinals +0.1 +3.7 -3.7 #174
East Texas A&M Lions -10.0 -5.5 -4.5 #296

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Incarnate Word offense vs East Texas A&M defense+8.2 pts
East Texas A&M offense vs Incarnate Word defense-1.8 pts

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.