← Matchups

Nicholls

· 2-1 (1-0) · power -4.6 · #236
Our numberNICH -8.2 no book has priced this game

Houston Christian

· 2-1 (1-0) · power -16.2 · #356
Our side
MoneylineNICH to win ours 31%
Projected score 32–24 NICH – HCU
2026-10-03 · 7:00 PM Husky Stadium (TX) · Houston, TX Conference game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series Nicholls lead 10–2 · 12 meetings since 2014
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game even 26 ranks apart
Nicholls Colonels #198 rush offense Houston Christian Huskies #172 run defense
Pass game edge Houston Christian Huskies 124 ranks
Nicholls Colonels #212 pass offense Houston Christian Huskies #88 pass defense
Run game edge Houston Christian Huskies 47 ranks
Houston Christian Huskies #202 rush offense Nicholls Colonels #249 run defense
Pass game edge Nicholls Colonels 199 ranks
Houston Christian Huskies #261 pass offense Nicholls Colonels #62 pass defense
Nicholls Colonels Run-heavy · 59% run Ball-control Houston Christian Huskies Balanced · 55% run Ball-control

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Nicholls Colonels
DB Skylar Husband 20 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT #71 DB
DL Alex Villavaso 9 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 3.0 TFL #102 DL
LB Kennon Loftin 24 tkl #96 LB
WR Jackson Dufrene 6 rec · 105 yds · 3 TD #101 WR
Houston Christian Huskies
LB Jayven Anderson 21 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 7.0 TFL #25 LB
P Julian Maceri 5 punts · 45.2 yd avg #9 P
DL Calvin Kalu-Alexander 6 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 2.5 TFL #351 DL
DB Darius Bean 17 tkl · 1 PD #341 DB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Nicholls Colonels -4.6 -2.7 -1.9 #236
Houston Christian Huskies -16.2 -7.9 -8.3 #356

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Nicholls offense vs Houston Christian defense+5.6 pts
Houston Christian offense vs Nicholls defense-6.0 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness+0.9 pts
Power projection before adjustment-9.1

The projection carries an efficiency adjustment — a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).