Our side
MoneylineNICH to win
ours 66%
Projected score
24–31
ETAM – NICH
2026-11-07 · 4:00 PM
John L. Guidry Stadium · Thibodaux, LA
Conference game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Nicholls lead
2–0
· 2 meetings since 2022
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge East Texas A&M Lions
83 ranks
East Texas A&M Lions #166 rush offense
Nicholls Colonels #249 run defense
Pass game
edge Nicholls Colonels
175 ranks
East Texas A&M Lions #237 pass offense
Nicholls Colonels #62 pass defense
Run game
even
2 ranks apart
Nicholls Colonels #198 rush offense
East Texas A&M Lions #196 run defense
Pass game
even
16 ranks apart
Nicholls Colonels #212 pass offense
East Texas A&M Lions #228 pass defense
East Texas A&M Lions
Balanced · 50% run
Ball-control
Nicholls Colonels
Run-heavy · 59% run
Ball-control
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
East Texas A&M Lions
DB
Tramar Gilbert
23 tkl · 1 PD
#39 DB
WR
Micah Simpson
17 rec · 311 yds · 2 TD
#29 WR
DL
Duncan Parham
12 tkl · 1.5 sacks · 2.0 TFL
#86 DL
DB
Jamari Mosley
11 tkl · 2 PD
#220 DB
Nicholls Colonels
DB
Skylar Husband
20 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
#71 DB
DL
Alex Villavaso
9 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 3.0 TFL
#102 DL
LB
Kennon Loftin
24 tkl
#96 LB
WR
Jackson Dufrene
6 rec · 105 yds · 3 TD
#101 WR
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
East Texas A&M offense vs Nicholls defense-3.6 pts
Nicholls offense vs East Texas A&M defense+1.8 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness-1.9 pts
Power projection before adjustment+8.4
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).