← Matchups

App State

SBC · 2-0 · power +7.5 · #98
Our numberAPP -3.4 no book has priced this game

Coastal Carolina

SBC · 1-1 · power +3.9 · #133
Our side
MoneylineAPP to win ours 46%
Projected score 29–26 APP – CCU
2026-10-16 · 8:00 PM Brooks Stadium (SC) · Conway, SC SBC game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series App State lead 7–5 · 12 meetings since 2005
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge App State Mountaineers 65 ranks
App State Mountaineers #144 rush offense Coastal Carolina Chanticleers #209 run defense
Pass game even 8 ranks apart
App State Mountaineers #203 pass offense Coastal Carolina Chanticleers #195 pass defense
Run game edge App State Mountaineers 111 ranks
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers #229 rush offense App State Mountaineers #118 run defense
Pass game edge App State Mountaineers 46 ranks
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers #221 pass offense App State Mountaineers #175 pass defense
App State Mountaineers Balanced · 49% run Avg pace Coastal Carolina Chanticleers Balanced · 57% run Ball-control
Dowell Loggains · 5-8 Tim Beck · 20-18

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
App State Mountaineers
DL Caleb Sandstrom 5 tkl · 3.0 sacks · 3.5 TFL #52 DL
TE Darrin Fugitt 11 rec · 113 yds · 1 TD #17 TE
WR Sam Pickett III 9 rec · 162 yds · 2 TD #88 WR
K James London 4 FG · 9 XP · 21 pts #27 K
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers
WR Clayton Coppock Jr. 6 rec · 109 yds · 3 TD #97 WR
WR Colton Hinton 6 rec · 154 yds · 2 TD #123 WR
DL Ibrahim Diawara 8 tkl · 1.5 sacks · 2.5 TFL #241 DL
QB Deuce Bailey 576 pass yds · 6 TD · 0 INT #58 QB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
App State MountaineersSBC +7.5 +4.9 +2.6 #98
Coastal Carolina ChanticleersSBC +3.9 +3.6 +0.3 #133

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
App State offense vs Coastal Carolina defense+4.6 pts
Coastal Carolina offense vs App State defense+1.0 pts
Altitude · context only978 m lower than the visitor's home elevation

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.