Our side
MoneylineJMU to win
ours 39%
Projected score
27–25
JMU – APP
2026-10-22 · 7:00 PM
Kidd Brewer Stadium · Boone, NC
SBC game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
App State lead
6–3
· 9 meetings since 1980
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge James Madison Dukes
82 ranks
James Madison Dukes #36 rush offense
App State Mountaineers #118 run defense
Pass game
edge James Madison Dukes
90 ranks
James Madison Dukes #85 pass offense
App State Mountaineers #175 pass defense
Run game
edge James Madison Dukes
123 ranks
App State Mountaineers #144 rush offense
James Madison Dukes #21 run defense
Pass game
edge James Madison Dukes
178 ranks
App State Mountaineers #203 pass offense
James Madison Dukes #25 pass defense
James Madison Dukes
Run-heavy · 62% run
Ball-control
Dual-threat QB · 42 rush ypg
App State Mountaineers
Balanced · 49% run
Avg pace
Bob Chesney · 21-6
Dowell Loggains · 5-8
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
James Madison Dukes
K
Morgan Suarez
3 FG · 14 XP · 23 pts
#20 K
RB
George Pettaway
99 rush yds · 4 TD
#76 RB
DB
Ken Willis
14 tkl
#273 DB
RB
Nick Herman
135 rush yds · 2 TD · 2 rec
#160 RB
App State Mountaineers
DL
Caleb Sandstrom
5 tkl · 3.0 sacks · 3.5 TFL
#52 DL
TE
Darrin Fugitt
11 rec · 113 yds · 1 TD
#17 TE
WR
Sam Pickett III
9 rec · 162 yds · 2 TD
#88 WR
K
James London
4 FG · 9 XP · 21 pts
#27 K
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
James Madison offense vs App State defense+7.7 pts
App State offense vs James Madison defense+1.1 pts
Altitude · context only594 m higher than the visitor's home elevation
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have
played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.