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James Madison

SBC · 2-0 · power +14.1 · #59
Our numberJMU -2.2 no book has priced this game

App State

SBC · 2-0 · power +7.5 · #98
Our side
MoneylineJMU to win ours 39%
Projected score 27–25 JMU – APP
2026-10-22 · 7:00 PM Kidd Brewer Stadium · Boone, NC SBC game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series App State lead 6–3 · 9 meetings since 1980
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge James Madison Dukes 82 ranks
James Madison Dukes #36 rush offense App State Mountaineers #118 run defense
Pass game edge James Madison Dukes 90 ranks
James Madison Dukes #85 pass offense App State Mountaineers #175 pass defense
Run game edge James Madison Dukes 123 ranks
App State Mountaineers #144 rush offense James Madison Dukes #21 run defense
Pass game edge James Madison Dukes 178 ranks
App State Mountaineers #203 pass offense James Madison Dukes #25 pass defense
James Madison Dukes Run-heavy · 62% run Ball-control Dual-threat QB · 42 rush ypg App State Mountaineers Balanced · 49% run Avg pace
Bob Chesney · 21-6 Dowell Loggains · 5-8

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
James Madison Dukes
K Morgan Suarez 3 FG · 14 XP · 23 pts #20 K
RB George Pettaway 99 rush yds · 4 TD #76 RB
DB Ken Willis 14 tkl #273 DB
RB Nick Herman 135 rush yds · 2 TD · 2 rec #160 RB
App State Mountaineers
DL Caleb Sandstrom 5 tkl · 3.0 sacks · 3.5 TFL #52 DL
TE Darrin Fugitt 11 rec · 113 yds · 1 TD #17 TE
WR Sam Pickett III 9 rec · 162 yds · 2 TD #88 WR
K James London 4 FG · 9 XP · 21 pts #27 K

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
James Madison DukesSBC +14.1 +10.4 +3.8 #59
App State MountaineersSBC +7.5 +4.9 +2.6 #98

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
James Madison offense vs App State defense+7.7 pts
App State offense vs James Madison defense+1.1 pts
Altitude · context only594 m higher than the visitor's home elevation

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.