Our side
MoneylineAPP to win
ours 67%
Projected score
23–30
GAST – APP
2026-11-07 · kickoff TBD
Kidd Brewer Stadium · Boone, NC
SBC game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
App State lead
12–0
· 12 meetings since 2014
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
even
40 ranks apart
Georgia State Panthers #158 rush offense
App State Mountaineers #118 run defense
Pass game
even
37 ranks apart
Georgia State Panthers #138 pass offense
App State Mountaineers #175 pass defense
Run game
edge App State Mountaineers
93 ranks
App State Mountaineers #144 rush offense
Georgia State Panthers #237 run defense
Pass game
even
36 ranks apart
App State Mountaineers #203 pass offense
Georgia State Panthers #239 pass defense
Georgia State Panthers
Balanced · 50% run
Avg pace
App State Mountaineers
Balanced · 49% run
Avg pace
Dell McGee · 4-20 · offense-minded
Dowell Loggains · 5-8
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Georgia State Panthers
QB
Cameran Brown
443 pass yds · 2 TD · 1 INT
#48 QB
RB
Dennis Murray Jr.
75 rush yds · 2 TD · 3 rec
#101 RB
LB
Xavier Esqillion
7 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 3.5 TFL
#156 LB
DL
Jabriel Rhodes-Nelson
6 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 3.0 TFL
#281 DL
App State Mountaineers
DL
Caleb Sandstrom
5 tkl · 3.0 sacks · 3.5 TFL
#52 DL
TE
Darrin Fugitt
11 rec · 113 yds · 1 TD
#17 TE
WR
Sam Pickett III
9 rec · 162 yds · 2 TD
#88 WR
K
James London
4 FG · 9 XP · 21 pts
#27 K
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Georgia State offense vs App State defense+0.1 pts
App State offense vs Georgia State defense+5.6 pts
Altitude · context only704 m higher than the visitor's home elevation
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have
played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.