Our side
MoneylineAPP to win
ours 80%
Projected score
20–33
ULM – APP
2026-11-21 · kickoff TBD
Kidd Brewer Stadium · Boone, NC
SBC game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
App State lead
7–1
· 8 meetings since 2014
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge App State Mountaineers
86 ranks
UL Monroe Warhawks #204 rush offense
App State Mountaineers #118 run defense
Pass game
even
38 ranks apart
UL Monroe Warhawks #137 pass offense
App State Mountaineers #175 pass defense
Run game
even
25 ranks apart
App State Mountaineers #144 rush offense
UL Monroe Warhawks #119 run defense
Pass game
even
4 ranks apart
App State Mountaineers #203 pass offense
UL Monroe Warhawks #199 pass defense
UL Monroe Warhawks
Run-heavy · 61% run
Ball-control
App State Mountaineers
Balanced · 49% run
Avg pace
Bryant Vincent · 15-22
Dowell Loggains · 5-8
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
UL Monroe Warhawks
DB
Jabari Tiller
18 tkl · 1 PD
#116 DB
DB
Carl Fauntroy
12 tkl · 1 INT
#119 DB
LB
Noah Flemmings
20 tkl · 0.5 TFL
#137 LB
DL
Kevontay Wells
5 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.0 TFL
#438 DL
App State Mountaineers
DL
Caleb Sandstrom
5 tkl · 3.0 sacks · 3.5 TFL
#52 DL
TE
Darrin Fugitt
11 rec · 113 yds · 1 TD
#17 TE
WR
Sam Pickett III
9 rec · 162 yds · 2 TD
#88 WR
K
James London
4 FG · 9 XP · 21 pts
#27 K
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
UL Monroe offense vs App State defense-6.5 pts
App State offense vs UL Monroe defense+5.2 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 644 mi
Altitude · context only968 m higher than the visitor's home elevation
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have
played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.