Our side
MoneylineUSA to win
ours 55%
Projected score
26–26
APP – USA
2026-11-27 · 3:00 PM
Hancock Whitney Stadium · Mobile, AL
SBC game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
App State lead
4–2
· 6 meetings since 2014
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge App State Mountaineers
72 ranks
App State Mountaineers #144 rush offense
South Alabama Jaguars #216 run defense
Pass game
even
13 ranks apart
App State Mountaineers #203 pass offense
South Alabama Jaguars #216 pass defense
Run game
even
26 ranks apart
South Alabama Jaguars #92 rush offense
App State Mountaineers #118 run defense
Pass game
edge South Alabama Jaguars
48 ranks
South Alabama Jaguars #127 pass offense
App State Mountaineers #175 pass defense
App State Mountaineers
Balanced · 49% run
Avg pace
South Alabama Jaguars
Run-heavy · 64% run
Avg pace
Dowell Loggains · 5-8
Major Applewhite · 26-25 · offense-minded
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
App State Mountaineers
DL
Caleb Sandstrom
5 tkl · 3.0 sacks · 3.5 TFL
#52 DL
TE
Darrin Fugitt
11 rec · 113 yds · 1 TD
#17 TE
WR
Sam Pickett III
9 rec · 162 yds · 2 TD
#88 WR
K
James London
4 FG · 9 XP · 21 pts
#27 K
South Alabama Jaguars
WR
Brendan Jenkins
14 rec · 197 yds · 2 TD
#25 WR
RB
PJ Martin
142 rush yds · 2 TD · 5 rec
#59 RB
QB
Bishop Davenport
450 pass yds · 3 TD · 0 INT
#34 QB
K
Davis Little
4 FG · 7 XP · 19 pts
#39 K
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
App State offense vs South Alabama defense+3.0 pts
South Alabama offense vs App State defense+3.0 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 534 mi
Altitude · context only948 m lower than the visitor's home elevation
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have
played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.