Our side
MoneylineUL to win
ours 68%
Projected score
24–31
ARST – UL
2026-10-03 · kickoff TBD
Our Lady of Lourdes Stadium · Lafayette, LA
SBC game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Louisiana lead
28–18
· 46 meetings since 1973
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
even
5 ranks apart
Arkansas State Red Wolves #235 rush offense
Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns #230 run defense
Pass game
even
3 ranks apart
Arkansas State Red Wolves #148 pass offense
Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns #151 pass defense
Run game
edge Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns
103 ranks
Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns #81 rush offense
Arkansas State Red Wolves #184 run defense
Pass game
even
33 ranks apart
Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns #213 pass offense
Arkansas State Red Wolves #180 pass defense
Arkansas State Red Wolves
Balanced · 46% run
Up-tempo
Dual-threat QB · 36 rush ypg
Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns
Run-heavy · 62% run
Avg pace
Dual-threat QB · 57 rush ypg
Butch Jones · 48-51
Michael Desormeaux · 29-25
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Arkansas State Red Wolves
RB
Kenyon Clay
99 rush yds · 2 TD · 4 rec
#33 RB
DB
Five Hamilton
8 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
#78 DB
LB
Robert Stevens
15 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.5 TFL
#50 LB
DL
Elias Sherman
13 tkl · 0.5 sacks · 1.0 TFL
#93 DL
Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns
DB
Brent Gordon Jr.
11 tkl · 2 PD · 1 INT
#72 DB
DB
Avery Demery
8 tkl · 1 INT
#188 DB
DB
Collin Jacob
17 tkl
#211 DB
TE
Caden Jensen
5 rec · 77 yds
#59 TE
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Arkansas State offense vs Louisiana defense+2.0 pts
Louisiana offense vs Arkansas State defense+7.9 pts
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have
played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.