Our side
MoneylineUSA to win
ours 47%
Projected score
28–26
USA – ARST
2026-10-08 · 7:30 PM
Centennial Bank Stadium · Jonesboro, AR
SBC game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Arkansas State lead
8–6
· 14 meetings since 2012
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge South Alabama Jaguars
92 ranks
South Alabama Jaguars #92 rush offense
Arkansas State Red Wolves #184 run defense
Pass game
edge South Alabama Jaguars
53 ranks
South Alabama Jaguars #127 pass offense
Arkansas State Red Wolves #180 pass defense
Run game
even
19 ranks apart
Arkansas State Red Wolves #235 rush offense
South Alabama Jaguars #216 run defense
Pass game
edge Arkansas State Red Wolves
68 ranks
Arkansas State Red Wolves #148 pass offense
South Alabama Jaguars #216 pass defense
South Alabama Jaguars
Run-heavy · 64% run
Avg pace
Arkansas State Red Wolves
Balanced · 46% run
Up-tempo
Dual-threat QB · 36 rush ypg
Major Applewhite · 26-25 · offense-minded
Butch Jones · 48-51
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
South Alabama Jaguars
WR
Brendan Jenkins
14 rec · 197 yds · 2 TD
#25 WR
RB
PJ Martin
142 rush yds · 2 TD · 5 rec
#59 RB
QB
Bishop Davenport
450 pass yds · 3 TD · 0 INT
#34 QB
K
Davis Little
4 FG · 7 XP · 19 pts
#39 K
Arkansas State Red Wolves
RB
Kenyon Clay
99 rush yds · 2 TD · 4 rec
#33 RB
DB
Five Hamilton
8 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
#78 DB
LB
Robert Stevens
15 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.5 TFL
#50 LB
DL
Elias Sherman
13 tkl · 0.5 sacks · 1.0 TFL
#93 DL
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
South Alabama offense vs Arkansas State defense+5.5 pts
Arkansas State offense vs South Alabama defense+2.2 pts
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have
played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.