Our side
MoneylineUSM to win
ours 53%
Projected score
26–29
ARST – USM
2026-10-17 · kickoff TBD
M. M. Roberts Stadium · Hattiesburg, MS
SBC game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Southern Miss lead
9–3
· 12 meetings since 1963
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge Southern Miss Golden Eagles
55 ranks
Arkansas State Red Wolves #235 rush offense
Southern Miss Golden Eagles #180 run defense
Pass game
edge Southern Miss Golden Eagles
112 ranks
Arkansas State Red Wolves #148 pass offense
Southern Miss Golden Eagles #36 pass defense
Run game
edge Southern Miss Golden Eagles
47 ranks
Southern Miss Golden Eagles #137 rush offense
Arkansas State Red Wolves #184 run defense
Pass game
edge Southern Miss Golden Eagles
89 ranks
Southern Miss Golden Eagles #91 pass offense
Arkansas State Red Wolves #180 pass defense
Arkansas State Red Wolves
Balanced · 46% run
Up-tempo
Dual-threat QB · 36 rush ypg
Southern Miss Golden Eagles
Balanced · 51% run
Avg pace
Butch Jones · 48-51
Charles Huff · 39-25
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Arkansas State Red Wolves
RB
Kenyon Clay
99 rush yds · 2 TD · 4 rec
#33 RB
DB
Five Hamilton
8 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
#78 DB
LB
Robert Stevens
15 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.5 TFL
#50 LB
DL
Elias Sherman
13 tkl · 0.5 sacks · 1.0 TFL
#93 DL
Southern Miss Golden Eagles
RB
Steven Robinson
174 rush yds · 3 TD · 1 rec
#37 RB
DB
Kobi Albert
7 tkl · 1 PD · 3 INT
#87 DB
DB
Laquan Robinson
17 tkl · 1 PD
#192 DB
LB
Mathis Haygood
15 tkl · 0.5 sacks · 2.5 TFL
#133 LB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Arkansas State offense vs Southern Miss defense+2.2 pts
Southern Miss offense vs Arkansas State defense+1.4 pts
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have
played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.