Our side
MoneylineLT to win
ours 54%
Projected score
27–27
ARST – LT
2026-11-21 · kickoff TBD
Joe Aillet Stadium · Ruston, LA
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Louisiana Tech lead
16–4
· 20 meetings since 1974
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge Louisiana Tech Bulldogs
189 ranks
Arkansas State Red Wolves #235 rush offense
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs #46 run defense
Pass game
edge Louisiana Tech Bulldogs
92 ranks
Arkansas State Red Wolves #148 pass offense
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs #56 pass defense
Run game
edge Louisiana Tech Bulldogs
78 ranks
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs #106 rush offense
Arkansas State Red Wolves #184 run defense
Pass game
even
2 ranks apart
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs #178 pass offense
Arkansas State Red Wolves #180 pass defense
Arkansas State Red Wolves
Balanced · 46% run
Up-tempo
Dual-threat QB · 36 rush ypg
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs
Run-heavy · 67% run
Avg pace
Dual-threat QB · 32 rush ypg
Butch Jones · 48-51
Sonny Cumbie · 21-34 · defense-minded
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Arkansas State Red Wolves
RB
Kenyon Clay
99 rush yds · 2 TD · 4 rec
#33 RB
DB
Five Hamilton
8 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
#78 DB
LB
Robert Stevens
15 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.5 TFL
#50 LB
DL
Elias Sherman
13 tkl · 0.5 sacks · 1.0 TFL
#93 DL
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs
LB
Alonzo Jackson Jr.
16 tkl · 3.0 sacks · 5.0 TFL
#2 LB
DB
Jordan McRae
12 tkl · 1 INT
#15 DB
WR
Jalen Mickens
9 rec · 234 yds · 2 TD
#41 WR
DB
Sam Fongang
15 tkl
#141 DB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Arkansas State offense vs Louisiana Tech defense+4.3 pts
Louisiana Tech offense vs Arkansas State defense+3.9 pts
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have
played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.