Our side
MoneylineARST to win
ours 59%
Projected score
24–27
TROY – ARST
2026-11-28 · 3:00 PM
Centennial Bank Stadium · Jonesboro, AR
SBC game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Arkansas State lead
11–9
· 20 meetings since 1991
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
even
42 ranks apart
Troy Trojans #226 rush offense
Arkansas State Red Wolves #184 run defense
Pass game
even
7 ranks apart
Troy Trojans #187 pass offense
Arkansas State Red Wolves #180 pass defense
Run game
edge Troy Trojans
126 ranks
Arkansas State Red Wolves #235 rush offense
Troy Trojans #109 run defense
Pass game
edge Troy Trojans
84 ranks
Arkansas State Red Wolves #148 pass offense
Troy Trojans #64 pass defense
Troy Trojans
Balanced · 54% run
Avg pace
Arkansas State Red Wolves
Balanced · 46% run
Up-tempo
Dual-threat QB · 36 rush ypg
Gerad Parker · 12-20 · defense-minded
Butch Jones · 48-51
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Troy Trojans
DL
Keno Jones
13 tkl · 1.5 sacks · 4.5 TFL
#22 DL
DB
Donnie Smith
9 tkl · 1 PD
#63 DB
WR
TK Keyes
7 rec · 167 yds · 2 TD
#109 WR
RB
Jaheim Merriweather
149 rush yds · 3 TD · 1 rec
#79 RB
Arkansas State Red Wolves
RB
Kenyon Clay
99 rush yds · 2 TD · 4 rec
#33 RB
DB
Five Hamilton
8 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
#78 DB
LB
Robert Stevens
15 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.5 TFL
#50 LB
DL
Elias Sherman
13 tkl · 0.5 sacks · 1.0 TFL
#93 DL
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Troy offense vs Arkansas State defense-1.5 pts
Arkansas State offense vs Troy defense+0.3 pts
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have
played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.