Our side · spreadGAST +8.5loggedour number at the pick KENN -6.6 · now KENN -0.1 · 7.4 pts from the market now
Kennesaw State
CUSA · 1-1 · power +0.2 · #170
FinalGAST 31 · KENN 17ML LSpread WTotal Lour logged sides, graded on the record
Our side
SpreadGAST +8.5loggedlive now: GAST +7.5 — the pick stands, the number moved · ours KENN -0.1
The line has not moved a point since it opened (KENN -9.25 → -8.5), so our number decides: KENN by 6.6 against KENN -8.5 means GAST covers.
TotalOver 54.5loggedlive now: Over 55.5 — the pick stands, the number moved · ours 56.3
The market's move decides. The total opened 50.5 and is now 54.5, toward the over; that side has covered 55.1% at the opener since 2021. Ours at the pick: 52.9 — the other side, overruled.
MoneylineKENN to winloggedours 50% · book 73%
Our number: KENN by 6.6 — KENN to win.
GAST team totalGAST over 21.5loggedlive now: GAST over 23.5 — the pick stands, the number moved · ours 28.1
Follows the spread and total picks: if KENN by 6.6 and the game goes over 54.5, GAST scores at least 24.0.
no pick
No KENN team-total pick: the spread and total picks put KENN over 30.5, which does not decide 32.5.
Distance from the market7.4 pts / +0.8 totala caution, not a signal
Projected score28–28GAST – KENN
2026-09-12 · 7:00 PMWalens Family Field at Fifth Third Stadium · Kennesaw, GAEarly season
The books 5 account books · tap any price — the ticket builds at that book
Book
GAST spread
KENN spread
Over
Under
GAST win
KENN win
GAST TT over
GAST TT under
KENN TT over
KENN TT under
DraftKings
—
—
—
—
FanDuel
BetMGM
ESPN Bet
—
—
Caesars
—
—
—
—
The gold price is the best available on that side;
a gold ★ marks the side our number implies — a read, not a pick.
TT is a team total — that team’s own points, not the game’s;
columns are empty where no book hangs one.
Send to book opens whichever book you tapped, not the one we would have picked.
Prices are the books’ own.
Ours vs the market
SpreadKennesaw State -0.1
the marketKennesaw State -7.5
Total56.3
the market55.5
Kennesaw State win50%
vs 73%
Both percentages are Kennesaw State’s chance to win — ours, then
the book’s with the vig removed, medianed across the books we track.
What the gap has been worth 10,740 games · 2016–2025
0–3 pts52.0%
3–750.2%
7–1449.3%
14+46.8%
How often the side we favoured covered, by how far our number sat from the
market’s. Break-even at −110 is 52.4% — no bucket reaches it, and
the rate falls as we disagree more. The further we sit from the market, the worse
we have done.
Public vs booksbets vs money · Action Networkcaptured in-gamespreadKENN 55% bets · 22% money · money GASTtotalUnder 85% bets · 84% moneyMLKENN 99% bets · 62% money
Series
Georgia State lead
1–0
· 1 meeting since 2018
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run gameedge Georgia State Panthers53 ranks
Georgia State Panthers #158 rush offenseKennesaw State Owls #211 run defense
Pass gameeven27 ranks apart
Georgia State Panthers #138 pass offenseKennesaw State Owls #111 pass defense
Run gameedge Kennesaw State Owls86 ranks
Kennesaw State Owls #151 rush offenseGeorgia State Panthers #237 run defense
Pass gameedge Kennesaw State Owls177 ranks
Kennesaw State Owls #62 pass offenseGeorgia State Panthers #239 pass defense
Georgia State PanthersBalanced · 50% runAvg paceKennesaw State OwlsRun-heavy · 59% runAvg paceDual-threat QB · 34 rush ypg
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Georgia State offense vs Kennesaw State defense+1.1 pts
Kennesaw State offense vs Georgia State defense-0.7 pts
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have
played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.