← Matchups

Georgia State

SBC · 2-0 · power +2.0 · #152
Our numberJMU -13.2 no book has priced this game

James Madison

SBC · 2-0 · power +14.1 · #59
Our side
MoneylineJMU to win ours 80%
Projected score 19–32 GAST – JMU
2026-10-17 · kickoff TBD Bridgeforth Stadium · Harrisonburg, VA SBC game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series James Madison lead 5–0 · 5 meetings since 2012
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge James Madison Dukes 137 ranks
Georgia State Panthers #158 rush offense James Madison Dukes #21 run defense
Pass game edge James Madison Dukes 113 ranks
Georgia State Panthers #138 pass offense James Madison Dukes #25 pass defense
Run game edge James Madison Dukes 201 ranks
James Madison Dukes #36 rush offense Georgia State Panthers #237 run defense
Pass game edge James Madison Dukes 154 ranks
James Madison Dukes #85 pass offense Georgia State Panthers #239 pass defense
Georgia State Panthers Balanced · 50% run Avg pace James Madison Dukes Run-heavy · 62% run Ball-control Dual-threat QB · 42 rush ypg
Dell McGee · 4-20 · offense-minded Bob Chesney · 21-6

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Georgia State Panthers
QB Cameran Brown 443 pass yds · 2 TD · 1 INT #48 QB
RB Dennis Murray Jr. 75 rush yds · 2 TD · 3 rec #101 RB
LB Xavier Esqillion 7 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 3.5 TFL #156 LB
DL Jabriel Rhodes-Nelson 6 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 3.0 TFL #281 DL
James Madison Dukes
K Morgan Suarez 3 FG · 14 XP · 23 pts #20 K
RB George Pettaway 99 rush yds · 4 TD #76 RB
DB Ken Willis 14 tkl #273 DB
RB Nick Herman 135 rush yds · 2 TD · 2 rec #160 RB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Georgia State PanthersSBC +2.0 +2.8 -0.7 #152
James Madison DukesSBC +14.1 +10.4 +3.8 #59

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Georgia State offense vs James Madison defense-1.0 pts
James Madison offense vs Georgia State defense+11.1 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 447 mi
Rest · context onlyAway team on 7 more days rest

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.