BallKnowMe college football, by the numbers

← Matchups

Liberty

CUSA · 1-1 · power +2.6 · #144
Our numberJMU -13.3 no book has priced this game

James Madison

SBC · 2-0 · power +14.1 · #59
Final LIB 13 · JMU 20 ML W Spread W Total L our logged sides, graded on the record
Our side
MoneylineJMU to win logged ours 77%

Our number: JMU by 19.7 — JMU to win.

Projected score 21–34 LIB – JMU
2026-09-05 · 12:00 PM Bridgeforth Stadium · Harrisonburg, VA Early season

The books 5 account books · tap any price — the ticket builds at that book

Book LIB spreadJMU spread OverUnder LIB winJMU win LIB TT overLIB TT under JMU TT overJMU TT under
DraftKings — — — —
FanDuel
BetMGM — — — —
ESPN Bet
Caesars — — — —

The gold price is the best available on that side; a gold ★ marks the side our number implies — a read, not a pick. TT is a team total — that team’s own points, not the game’s; columns are empty where no book hangs one. Send to book opens whichever book you tapped, not the one we would have picked. Prices are the books’ own.

Public vs booksbets vs money · Action Network captured in-game spread JMU 64% bets · 61% money total Under 71% bets · 62% money ML JMU 94% bets · 87% money
Series James Madison lead 5–1 · 6 meetings since 2003
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game even 34 ranks apart
Liberty Flames #55 rush offense James Madison Dukes #21 run defense
Pass game edge James Madison Dukes 146 ranks
Liberty Flames #171 pass offense James Madison Dukes #25 pass defense
Run game edge James Madison Dukes 174 ranks
James Madison Dukes #36 rush offense Liberty Flames #210 run defense
Pass game even 28 ranks apart
James Madison Dukes #85 pass offense Liberty Flames #113 pass defense
Liberty Flames Run-heavy · 66% run Avg pace James Madison Dukes Run-heavy · 62% run Ball-control Dual-threat QB · 42 rush ypg
Jamey Chadwell · 64-35 Bob Chesney · 21-6

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Liberty Flames
WR Makai Jackson 5 rec · 142 yds · 2 TD #139 WR
DB Jiquavious Marshall 7 tkl · 4 PD #222 DB
DL Nathan Pirolli 8 tkl · 0.5 sacks · 1.5 TFL #305 DL
LB Derrell Farrar 12 tkl · 1.5 TFL #247 LB
James Madison Dukes
K Morgan Suarez 3 FG · 14 XP · 23 pts #20 K
RB George Pettaway 99 rush yds · 4 TD #76 RB
DB Ken Willis 14 tkl #273 DB
RB Nick Herman 135 rush yds · 2 TD · 2 rec #160 RB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Liberty FlamesCUSA +2.6 -3.3 +5.9 #144
James Madison DukesSBC +14.1 +10.4 +3.8 #59

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Liberty offense vs James Madison defense-7.1 pts
James Madison offense vs Liberty defense+4.5 pts

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.