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James Madison

SBC · 2-0 · power +14.1 · #59
Our numberJMU -1.1 no book has priced this game

Old Dominion

SBC · 1-1 · power +9.3 · #90
Our side
MoneylineJMU to win ours 43%
Projected score 27–26 JMU – ODU
2026-09-26 · kickoff TBD S.B. Ballard Stadium · Norfolk, VA SBC game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series James Madison lead 4–2 · 6 meetings since 2011
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game even 11 ranks apart
James Madison Dukes #36 rush offense Old Dominion Monarchs #25 run defense
Pass game edge Old Dominion Monarchs 72 ranks
James Madison Dukes #85 pass offense Old Dominion Monarchs #13 pass defense
Run game edge James Madison Dukes 52 ranks
Old Dominion Monarchs #73 rush offense James Madison Dukes #21 run defense
Pass game even 22 ranks apart
Old Dominion Monarchs #47 pass offense James Madison Dukes #25 pass defense
James Madison Dukes Run-heavy · 62% run Ball-control Dual-threat QB · 42 rush ypg Old Dominion Monarchs Run-heavy · 61% run Ball-control Dual-threat QB · 84 rush ypg
Bob Chesney · 21-6 Ricky Rahne · 30-33

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
James Madison Dukes
K Morgan Suarez 3 FG · 14 XP · 23 pts #20 K
RB George Pettaway 99 rush yds · 4 TD #76 RB
DB Ken Willis 14 tkl #273 DB
RB Nick Herman 135 rush yds · 2 TD · 2 rec #160 RB
Old Dominion Monarchs
DL Javen Gibson 7 tkl · 2.5 sacks · 4.0 TFL #66 DL
DB Lucas Struck 11 tkl · 3 PD #92 DB
LB Mario Thompson 19 tkl · 1.0 TFL #79 LB
QB Quinn Henicle 324 pass yds · 3 TD · 1 INT #46 QB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
James Madison DukesSBC +14.1 +10.4 +3.8 #59
Old Dominion MonarchsSBC +9.3 +1.2 +8.0 #90

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
James Madison offense vs Old Dominion defense+2.3 pts
Old Dominion offense vs James Madison defense-2.5 pts
Altitude · context only394 m lower than the visitor's home elevation

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.