← Matchups

Troy

SBC · 2-0 · power +2.5 · #146
Our numberUL -10.1 no book has priced this game

Louisiana

SBC · 1-1 · power +10.2 · #81
Our side
MoneylineUL to win ours 72%
Projected score 21–31 TROY – UL
2026-10-17 · kickoff TBD Our Lady of Lourdes Stadium · Lafayette, LA SBC game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series Troy lead 12–8 · 20 meetings since 1994
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game even 4 ranks apart
Troy Trojans #226 rush offense Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns #230 run defense
Pass game even 36 ranks apart
Troy Trojans #187 pass offense Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns #151 pass defense
Run game even 28 ranks apart
Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns #81 rush offense Troy Trojans #109 run defense
Pass game edge Troy Trojans 149 ranks
Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns #213 pass offense Troy Trojans #64 pass defense
Troy Trojans Balanced · 54% run Avg pace Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns Run-heavy · 62% run Avg pace Dual-threat QB · 57 rush ypg
Gerad Parker · 12-20 · defense-minded Michael Desormeaux · 29-25

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Troy Trojans
DL Keno Jones 13 tkl · 1.5 sacks · 4.5 TFL #22 DL
DB Donnie Smith 9 tkl · 1 PD #63 DB
WR TK Keyes 7 rec · 167 yds · 2 TD #109 WR
RB Jaheim Merriweather 149 rush yds · 3 TD · 1 rec #79 RB
Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns
DB Brent Gordon Jr. 11 tkl · 2 PD · 1 INT #72 DB
DB Avery Demery 8 tkl · 1 INT #188 DB
DB Collin Jacob 17 tkl #211 DB
TE Caden Jensen 5 rec · 77 yds #59 TE

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Troy TrojansSBC +2.5 -1.3 +3.8 #146
Louisiana Ragin' CajunsSBC +10.2 +8.1 +2.1 #81

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Troy offense vs Louisiana defense-3.4 pts
Louisiana offense vs Troy defense+4.3 pts
Rest · context onlyAway team on 4 more days rest

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.