← Matchups

Mercyhurst

· 0-3 · power -16.3 · #357
Our numberWKU -27.1 no book has priced this game

Western Kentucky

CUSA · 0-2 · power -0.2 · #186
Our side
MoneylineWKU to win ours 93%
Projected score 17–44 MERC – WKU
2026-09-26 · 7:00 PM Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium · Bowling Green, KY Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

First recorded meeting between these programs
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge Western Kentucky Hilltoppers 99 ranks
Mercyhurst Lakers #220 rush offense Western Kentucky Hilltoppers #121 run defense
Pass game edge Western Kentucky Hilltoppers 114 ranks
Mercyhurst Lakers #190 pass offense Western Kentucky Hilltoppers #76 pass defense
Run game edge Western Kentucky Hilltoppers 67 ranks
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers #145 rush offense Mercyhurst Lakers #212 run defense
Pass game even 8 ranks apart
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers #135 pass offense Mercyhurst Lakers #143 pass defense
Mercyhurst Lakers Balanced · 47% run Ball-control Western Kentucky Hilltoppers Balanced · 49% run Avg pace
Tyson Helton · 57-36

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Mercyhurst Lakers
DL Zacchaeus Dixon 15 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.5 TFL #135 DL
DB Braylon Beckwith 21 tkl #182 DB
TE Camden Lewis 10 rec · 83 yds · 1 TD #44 TE
P Thomas O'Neill 19 punts · 43.3 yd avg #24 P
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
RB Ajay Allen 121 rush yds · 2 TD · 3 rec #106 RB
DB Justin Brown 9 tkl · 1 INT #319 DB
TE Coleson Arends 2 rec · 18 yds · 1 TD #92 TE
DB Jaylen Lewis 13 tkl #491 DB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Mercyhurst Lakers -16.3 -8.4 -7.9 #357
Western Kentucky HilltoppersCUSA -0.2 +5.5 -5.6 #186

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Mercyhurst offense vs Western Kentucky defense-2.8 pts
Western Kentucky offense vs Mercyhurst defense+13.4 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 491 mi

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.